Houston PCs Dominate as Fragmented Opposition Remains Behind

As Premier Tim Houston and his Progressive Conservative government prepare to table the 2026 to 2027 budget, the latest Abacus Data survey confirms that the government remains firmly in the lead of Nova Scotia’s political landscape. The numbers show a party with continued deep province-wide support, a broad coalition across demographics, and a substantial lead over a fragmented opposition.

A Commanding Lead

If a provincial election were held today, the Progressive Conservatives would receive 48 percent of the vote among decided voters. While that represents a modest dip since September, the more important figure is the margin. The PCs lead their closest challenger by 23 points.

The New Democrats sit at 25 percent and the Liberals trail at 18 percent. The Greens register only 2 percent, with other parties combining for 7 percent.

No opposition party is within striking distance. The vote is split between multiple smaller parties, preventing any unified alternative from emerging. Even taken together, the opposition remains fractured and unable to consolidate support in a way that threatens the government’s dominant position.

Leading in Every Region

The strength of the Houston government is not confined to one part of the province. The PCs lead in every region, often by overwhelming margins.

In Cape Breton, the PCs stand at 62 percent support. The Liberals trail at 27 percent and the NDP sits far behind at 8 percent, giving the government a 35-point advantage.

In Mainland Nova Scotia, the PCs are at 50 percent. The NDP holds 20 percent and the Liberals 17 percent, producing a 30-point lead for the governing party.

In Halifax Regional Municipality, traditionally the most competitive region, the PCs still lead at 43 percent. The NDP sits at 33 percent and the Liberals at 16 percent, leaving the government ahead by 10 points.

Winning every region at the outset of a legislative session underscores the breadth and resilience of the PC coalition.

Strong Support Across Demographics

The Progressive Conservatives also dominate across age groups and gender.

Among Nova Scotians aged 45 and older, 54 percent would vote PC. Even among those under 45, 40 percent support the governing party. That represents a wide generational reach.

Support among men stands at 50 percent. Among women, 46 percent say they would vote PC. The government’s coalition spans genders and age groups in a way no opposition party can match.

This breadth is critical heading into a budget season that is expected to focus on spending restraint. The government’s base remains solid and geographically and demographically diverse.

More Believe the Province Is on the Right Track

A key indicator of political durability is whether voters believe their province is heading in the right direction. In this survey, more Nova Scotians say the province is on the right track than headed in the wrong direction.

Among current PC supporters, optimism is overwhelming. Eighty-three percent believe the province is moving in the right direction. Half of Baby Boomers share that view.

Strong Approval Numbers

Overall approval of the Houston government remains very positive.

Forty-four percent approve of the government’s performance compared with 29 percent who disapprove. That produces a strong positive balance for a government well into its second mandate.

Even with some month to month variation, approval remains comfortably above disapproval. Few governments approaching a significant budget moment can claim such a cushion.

A Divided and Weak Opposition

The contrast with the opposition is stark. The NDP and Liberals are locked into second and third place, well behind the governing Tories and separated from each other by only single digits. Neither has emerged as a credible alternative government.

The Greens remain marginal at 2 percent. The combined opposition vote is splintered across multiple parties, making it structurally difficult to challenge a government that sits near 50 percent support on its own.

Approval of the NDP as Official Opposition stands at just 31 percent. That figure reflects limited impact and limited traction throughout the province.

In short, while the PCs approach the next legislative session with a dominant position, the opposition remains divided, distant, and unable to consolidate support.

The Bottom Line

As the Houston government prepares to introduce its 2026 to 2027 budget, it does so from a position of unmistakable strength.

The Progressive Conservatives hold a 23-point province-wide lead. They lead in every region. They dominate across age and gender groups. More Nova Scotians believe the province is on the right track than the wrong track. Government approval remains solidly positive.

At the same time, the opposition remains fragmented and far behind, with no party close to forming a competitive alternative.

The political landscape in Nova Scotia is not simply favouring Premier Tim Houston and his Progressive Conservative government, it is reinforcing their strong mandate to govern. The numbers show a government with broad public backing, a decisive lead over its competitors, and a level of support that signals continued confidence from voters across the province.